基于油液分析的装备状态多阶段组合预测模型

状态预测是状态维修的关键步骤之一。针对装备状态变化规律复杂、特点难易准确掌握的关键问题,以延时时间概念和两阶段预知模型为基础,提出了根据不同阶段特点采用不同预测方法的多阶段组合预测模型。通过油液分析及其相关规定,对装备运行阶段进行了具体划分,给出了适应各阶段特点的预测方法。最后,通过实例验证了该模型的有效性。     

某装备系统机电产品贮存可靠性评估方法

针对某装备系统机电产品长期自然贮存环境下可靠性无法准确评估的难题,提出了一种基于极小χ2估计和拟合优度检验的贮存可靠性评估方法,并对试验数据进行了分析、计算和处理。该方法通过拟合产品的失效分布来确定其分布函数参数,并根据确定的分布函数来预测产品的贮存可靠寿命。与现有的评估方法相比,采用该方法确定的分布函数更能反映产品的可靠性变化规律,对机电产品的贮存寿命预测结果更加合理,在工程研究领域具有很好的实用价值。     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

A sequential scheduling problem with impatient jobs

There are n customers that need to be served. Customer i will only wait in queue for an exponentially distributed time with rate λ_i before departing the system. The service time of customer i has distribution F_i, and on completion of service of customer i a positive reward r_i is earned. There is a single server and the problem is to choose, after each service completion, which currently in queue customer to serve next so as to maximize the expected total return. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 659–663, 2015     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

基于单元故障模式的水下恒流远供系统可靠性分析方法

以水下单元的短路/开路故障模式为基础,提出了一种分析缆系海底观测网络恒流远供系统可靠性的方法。根据系统供电和结构特性,将系统分成不同的供电链路和链路段。详细研究了处于不同位置的各种水下单元发生故障时,对链路和观测设备的供电状态的影响。归纳了导致系统和各链路无法正常导通、观测设备无法得到供电的状态情况,分析了不同故障状态发生的概率,进而得出了求解系统、供电链路与供电设备的供电可靠度的方法。通过算例分析,进一步梳理了3种供电可靠性的共性规律,说明在设计和建设恒流远供系统时,应综合须考量这3种供电可靠性。     

水下制氢反应室动态过程数值分析

为研究水下制氢反应室的动态过程规律,基于化学反应动力学和单液滴运动学得到合金/水反应转化率,并在最小自由能法计算得到生成物各组分摩尔数的基础上利用质量守恒方程得到室内各物质质量变化规律。在建立非线性移动边界螺旋管动态模型的前提下,利用能量守恒方程得到室内热力参数变化规律,进而完成制氢反应室动态过程详尽模型的建立。利用该模型编写计算程序,完成某水下制氢反应室动态过程仿真。结果表明,各仿真曲线较好地反映了对应参数的动态变化规律,验证了模型建立与仿真的正确性;合金/水反应转化率决定了反应室的物质质量变化规律及其能量释放特性。该模型可以作为制氢反应室动态特性分析及其过程控制研究的基础模型。     

序降应力加速寿命试验(上)——试验分析篇

加速寿命试验是高可靠长寿命型产品的量化评估的重要途径,广泛应用于武器装备的定寿延寿课题中。为了进一步提高加速寿命试验的效率,提出一种新的试验方法——序降应力加速寿命试验。通过理论模型建立、试验数据分析和蒙特卡罗仿真对该方法的有效性进行分析。研究结果表明,在相同的试验环境下序降应力加速寿命试验方法不但能大幅度提高试验效率,同时还能提高试验分析精度。因此,在武器装备的定寿延寿课题中,序降应力加速寿命试验值得推广。     

旋转整流器断路故障诊断分析

阐述了无刷励磁发电机的旋转整流器在正常工况下的换相原理和换相过程,理论解析了旋转整流器在正常和断路工况下的输入电流波形,定量分析了励磁机励磁电流谐波含量,证明了以励磁电流作为旋转整流器故障诊断依据的可行性。仿真和实验验证表明:定量分析谐波含量提高了旋转整流器的故障检测精确性,为无刷励磁发电机系统的故障诊断研究提供了判断依据。     

运动载体涡流磁场数值计算与特性分析

为提高运动载体涡流磁干扰建模与补偿的精度,对载体运动引起的涡流磁场的产生机理和分布特性进行分析研究。首先,对涡流磁场的产生机理进行了溯源分析;然后,采用有限元法对涡流磁场进行数值计算研究。考虑到计算空间包含结构的磁导率单一问题,采用了有限元节点法矢量磁位计算方式,并针对舱体壁计算单元,考虑了耦合积分电势自由度,同时考虑到磁场周期变化,采用了瞬态有限元计算方式;最后,通过数值计算分析,揭示了运动载体涡流磁场与外磁场变化频率的关系,并分析了涡流磁场沿径向和轴向的空间分布特性和传播规律,为运动载体涡流磁场干扰的高精度建模与补偿奠定了基础。